Dave (DAVE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Dave Inc. has demonstrated significant growth in its customer base, achieving 2.6 million monthly transacting members, which marks a 16% year-over-year increase driven by effective member conversion and strong retention strategies. The company reported a notable improvement in its adjusted EBITDA margin, rising to 38.6% from 19.0%, indicating enhanced operational efficiency and profitability. Additionally, the annualized revenue per monthly transacting member surged by 42% year-over-year, reaching $200, reflecting the scalability and value of its financial services offerings.

Dave Inc. has experienced a notable decline in fixed expenses as a percentage of total revenue, dropping 1,100 basis points year-over-year to 21% in Q1/24, suggesting improved efficiency; however, this positive metric may not fully offset ongoing concerns. Additionally, while operating leverage has been demonstrated through a decline in operating expenses from 93% of total revenue to 69% in Q2/25, this may not be sustainable in the long term given the anticipated increase in the provision for credit losses. The expected peak in credit loss provisions as a percentage of originations in Q3/25 raises significant concerns about potential future profitability and indicates a challenging credit environment ahead for the company.