Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Deckers Outdoor is a well-established outdoor footwear company with strong brands, such as Ugg and Hoka, accounting for 97% of its sales. Although the F2Q guide is below expectations, the company has a solid return algorithm, supported by a growing international presence and expanding distribution of Hoka. Despite the Hoka durability debate, the company's sales foundation is encouraging, with improving gross margin and strong DTC trends at Hoka. With a diversified product portfolio and multi-year growth outlook, Deckers has the potential to generate high single-digit to low double-digit revenue growth and continued margin expansion, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

Deckers Outdoor is facing uncertainty in the second half of 2027 with their HOKA brand, where the potential catalyst is HOKA confirming as a timing dynamic, but the risk is it confirming as slower demand. The potential for a ~4ppt/yr buyback tailwind and a solid FY27 outlook can support the company, but risks include potential shifts in consumer preferences, inventory imbalances, and global economic uncertainties. Additionally, DECK's Q1 results were strong, with EPS of $0.94 beating guidance of $0.82-$0.87 and FY revenue outlook reiterated at 7-8%, but they did guide below consensus for Q2 and have adjusted their PT to $125 due to a more conservative multiple. Hoka and UGG continue to see solid growth, with Hoka up 15% in Q4 and expected LDD revenue growth this year.