DNOW Inc (DNOW) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Dnow is positioned for a fundamental re-rating because the MRC Global acquisition more than doubled annual sales, broadened its mix toward more stable gas utility, downstream, and industrial end markets, and created meaningful scale advantages that should reduce cyclicality over time. Third-quarter results showed the strategy is already working, with revenue of $1.34 billion, adjusted gross margin expanding to 21.2%, adjusted EBITDA rising to $76 million, and EPS improving to $0.18 as synergy capture, operating efficiency, and a favorable product mix offset ERP-related headwinds and project delays. With net debt leverage declining, cash generation supporting buybacks and deleveraging, and management pointing to further synergy realization and margin recovery into 2027, the company appears well placed to convert integration progress into stronger earnings power.

Dnow is viewed negatively because the MRC integration is already creating material ERP execution problems in the U.S., disrupting order placement, processing, and fulfillment and driving estimated sales losses of $100 million to $150 million in 3Q25 and roughly $400 million in the first year. The business also faces softer upstream demand, cyclical destocking in gas utilities, and a potentially weaker downstream turnaround environment, all of which could constrain CY26 EBITDA to near $200 million. With roughly 40% of DNOW’s sales exposed to the ERP issue and margin recovery at risk, further disruption or higher mitigation costs could keep earnings under pressure and deepen downside risk.