BRP Inc (DOO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

BRP is supported by resilient retail demand, especially in utility ORV, strong traction from farming, construction, and first responder customers, and a premium mix that skews toward households with average income of about $176K. Its Q1 performance was well ahead of consensus, with revenue of $2,392 million, normalized EBITDA of $334.4 million, and normalized diluted EPS of $1.83, while market share gains in ORV, PWC, and snowmobiles and near-optimal inventories suggest execution is improving. The company’s outlook is further strengthened by dealer expansion, international sales growth, more than $800 million in expected free cash flow, 1.4x leverage, and substantial capital returns, including about 2.3 million shares repurchased for roughly $202 million year to date.

BRP is facing a fundamentally weaker earnings setup because tariff costs and inflation are compressing margins, with net tariff impact now estimated at $200 million in 2026 and $225 million in 2027, while commodity inflation is expected to weigh 100-125bp on margins. Although sales guidance was raised to $9.125 billion-$9.325 billion, Adjusted EBITDA was cut to $925 million-$975 million and Normalized Diluted EPS to $3.00-$3.50, reflecting a sharp earnings reset from prior expectations. The company’s cyclical exposure, especially with about 72% of revenue tied to North America, plus weaker PWC shipments, product-mix pressure, and uncertainty around future tariff actions make valuation support fragile despite buybacks.