Brinker International (EAT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Brinker International is supported by Chili’s sustained traffic-led outperformance, with F1Q delivering a strong beat, Chili’s domestic company-owned same-store sales of +10.1%, and quarter-to-date trends still running in the high mid-single digits despite gas prices and inflation pressuring consumers. Management’s raised FY27 revenue and adj. EPS guidance, plus expectations for positive sales and traffic through the rest of FY27, reinforce confidence that operational improvements, menu innovation like the Big Crispy platform, and better speed of service are broadening the brand’s appeal. The company also appears positioned to expand margins and earnings leverage as consolidated restaurant operating margin improved to 17.7% and Chili’s continues to outgrow the casual-dining industry, while Maggiano’s remains the main offset.

Brinker International is facing a challenging setup because Chili’s is comping against extraordinary FY25 growth, and any move into negative comps could quickly make investors question whether the brand has simply pulled forward demand rather than structurally reset higher. Margin upside also looks fragile, as food investment, R&M, labor, advertising, remodels, and tariffs may prevent restaurant margin expansion from flowing through cleanly even if sales stay firm. In addition, execution risk is rising with higher volumes, menu innovation, North of 6, reimages, and future unit growth, while Maggiano’s remains a drag with negative comps and weak traffic.