Brinker International (EAT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Brinker International has demonstrated robust financial performance, with Chili's achieving a 25% increase in same-store sales (SSS) and a notable 16% rise in traffic, indicating strong consumer demand. The company also reported a significant 100% growth in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and improved restaurant margins, which expanded by 260 basis points year-over-year, despite a challenging menu mix. Furthermore, Brinker International is expected to achieve additional restaurant margin expansion of 30 to 40 basis points in the upcoming fiscal year, supported by strong traffic momentum and strategic investments aimed at enhancing operational efficiencies.

Brinker International's stock outlook remains negative due to a reliance on a projected EBITDA multiple that suggests potential downside, reflecting weaker-than-expected performance. Despite introducing initial FY26 EPS guidance that exceeds consensus slightly, the revenue forecast indicates only modest same-store sales growth (MSD%), which may not sufficiently drive profitability in a challenging consumer spending environment. Additionally, the company's dependence on key factors like FY1Q26 results and industry trends highlights the uncertainty surrounding its financial stability, further supporting a cautious perspective.