Estee Lauder (EL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Estée Lauder Cos. is a dominant player in the global prestige beauty market, with a diversified product portfolio that includes skin care (49% of fiscal 2025 sales), makeup (29%), and fragrance (17%), contributing to a robust revenue stream. The company has seen positive growth trends, as evidenced by a 3.9% year-over-year sales increase in fragrance and an expansion of online sales to 31% of total reported sales in FY25, up from 28% in the prior fiscal year. With anticipated total reported sales increasing by 4.5% year-over-year to $14.92 billion in FY26 and strong performance in key markets such as China, the positive outlook for Estée Lauder is supported by its ability to grow revenue in line with the overall growth of the prestige beauty market.

Estée Lauder Cos has experienced a downward adjustment in its fiscal year 2026 EPS estimate, decreasing from $2.24 to $2.10, reflecting challenges in the company's financial performance. This decline is attributed to a 28% year-over-year contraction in segment sales and significant weakness in the hair care category, which saw a reported decrease of 14.5% in the last quarter. Furthermore, adverse consumer sentiment in Western Europe and continued softness in the Asia-Pacific market, particularly within the travel retail sector, have contributed to a lackluster sales outlook, signaling ongoing volatility and financial strain for the company.