e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Stock Forecast & Price Target

e.l.f. Beauty Inc. has demonstrated substantial growth potential, evidenced by a 91% average sales increase in F1H25 and a continued positive trend in their core business, which is expected to maintain high-single-digit growth. The company has maintained its leading position in the foundation and face segments while also increasing its market share in the eye category to a record 9%, indicating robust brand performance and consumer demand. Furthermore, anticipated international door additions and the easing of comparisons in F2H26 suggest that the company is well-positioned for continued expansion and revenue growth throughout the year.

e.l.f. Beauty's stock outlook is negatively influenced by a significant decline in its market share in the Cheek category, which remains the most pressured segment of the company. Furthermore, management is facing challenges with tough year-over-year comparisons due to the previous year’s exceptional product launch and a recent overall industry demand downturn. Additionally, there is a downward revision in the company's FY27 sales growth estimate from 16.8% to 16.6%, compounded by unexpectedly lower margins, which raises concerns about the company's financial performance and competitiveness.