Enova Int. (ENVA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Enova International has demonstrated strong growth in its small business (SMB) portfolio, which constituted approximately 40% of total finance receivable revenue in 2024, reflecting an increase from 38% in 2023. Additionally, the company has improved its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) by 12%, attributed to better management of operating expenses, while revenue from the SMB sector grew by 32% year-over-year, surpassing the 21.7% growth of its consumer loan portfolio. These positive financial metrics, alongside a favorable outlook on valuation improvement based on credit performance, enhance Enova's prospects for continued expansion and investor interest.

Enova International's financial outlook faces challenges primarily due to concerns regarding its ability to maintain growth in a potentially tightening credit environment, which could adversely impact loan originations and portfolio growth. Although general and administrative costs have decreased from 8.1% of revenue in 2022 to 5.9% in 2024, any slowdown in growth could lead to reduced buyback activity, as well as lower GAAP profitability. Furthermore, there are discrepancies between the company's own EPS growth guidance and analysts’ estimates, with a projected growth of only 15% in 4Q25, compared to the guidance of 20-25%, indicating potential headwinds in achieving expected performance.