ERO Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ero Copper Corp exhibits a substantially increased attributable Furnas 10% NAV, rising to $365 million, reflecting a remarkable 131% growth from the previous $158 million, which now constitutes 15% of the company's asset level NAVPS. The corporate NAVPS also witnessed an 8% increment to C$25.64, supported by forecasts indicating substantial free cash flow (FCF) growth from $129 million in 2025 to $362 million in 2027, yielding up to 16%. Furthermore, the company’s total copper production reached 19.7kt, marking an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase, aligning closely with projections and reinforcing a positive outlook driven by strong operational performance and anticipated financial enhancements.

Ero Copper Corp has recently provided updated operational guidance that fell short of expectations, particularly with 2026 C1 cash costs appearing weaker than previously forecasted. The company reported Q3/25 results that were below projections, and its revised copper production guidance for 2026-2028 is modestly lower than prior estimates, leading to a significant reduction in NAVPS and average EBITDA projections. These factors collectively contribute to a negative outlook for Ero Copper's stock, indicating challenges in meeting production targets and financial performance metrics.