Etsy (ETSY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Etsy has demonstrated notable financial strength with a consolidated gross merchandise volume (GMS) of $12.5 billion projected for 2024, ranking it among the largest players in the growing e-commerce space focused on vintage and craft goods. The company's core marketplace has seen significant year-over-year growth, with US GMS increasing by 59% and reactivated buyers rising by 3.8%, indicating an expanding user base and increased purchasing activity. Additionally, Depop has contributed positively to Etsy's performance, generating $292.1 million in GMS at a growth rate of 39.4% year-over-year, showcasing the firm's ability to capture market share and drive revenue through improved service offerings and user engagement.

Etsy is experiencing a concerning trend with Total Active Buyers, which has declined for five consecutive quarters, showing a year-over-year decrease of 4% to 93.2 million, compared to 93.3 million in the previous quarter. Additionally, the company is facing challenges with margin compression at Depop, as increased brand marketing efforts are projected to negatively impact EBITDA estimates by approximately 5% through the first half of 2026. Overall, Etsy's performance is lagging behind the broader U.S. e-commerce growth, particularly due to sustained weakness in its key product categories, such as home decor, which are inherently discretionary.