EVgo (EVGO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

EVgo is benefiting from a powerful secular shift in EV infrastructure, with NACS stall count rising to >290 from ~100 at YE25 and management targeting 400 by YE26, while NACS/TSLA vehicles already represent ~60% of VIO and could exceed 80% by 2030. Its Tesla partnership and expanded Brixmor rollout should materially widen access, with EVgo-branded Superchargers now visible in Tesla navigation for over 3.5 million drivers and expected to more than double the addressable market over time. Fundamentally, 3Q26 showed improving operating leverage and scale—revenue of $91mm, gross profit of $32mm at 35.4%, EBITDA of ($4)mm, 5.53k stalls in operation, and ~20% utilization—supporting the view that growth can compound despite near-term capital intensity.

EVgo is facing a deteriorating fundamental backdrop because 3Q26 throughput of 103 GWh fell below expectations, with weaker EV sales, a sluggish ramp in the 2025 vintage stall cohort, lower legacy 50 kW utilization, and softer summer seasonality all pressuring core charging demand. Although total revenue of $91.4mm was supported by non-charging segments and gross margin improved to 35.4%, FY26 guidance was still cut to $375mm-$400mm of revenue and adjusted EBITDA to $(30)mm-$(15)mm, underscoring limited operating leverage and continued losses. The reduction in planned new stalls to 1,075-1,275 also signals slower network expansion, while the proposed $2 per share acquisition by LS Power further highlights weak market confidence in the standalone growth story.