Evolent Health (EVH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Evolent Health Inc. demonstrates a strong growth outlook, driven by its ability to cross-sell and upsell services to large customers, with expectations for future revenue growth potentially reaching over $2 billion annually from the company's Aetna contract alone. The company operates within a substantial total addressable market, addressing around 180K-200K cancer cases annually against a backdrop of over 2 million cases, highlighting significant growth potential. With a robust pipeline of $650 million and a recent uptick in service utilization, particularly in cardiology, Evolent Health is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing shift toward value-based care driven by government initiatives.

Evolent Health Inc. is facing significant challenges that contribute to a negative outlook for its stock. The company anticipates a sharp decline in non-enhanced revenue from approximately $285 million in 2025 to around $170 million in 2026, largely due to increased competition and reduced membership in higher-margin segments. Additionally, projected EBITDA for 2026 is estimated to fall to the range of $134-$144 million, with potential headwinds from expected declines in both Medicaid and Exchange enrollment, which could further compress margins and negatively impact overall profitability.