Expedia (EXPE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Expedia Group is viewed positively because its 3Q performance showed broad-based operating momentum, with gross bookings of $34.0BN (+11% y/y), revenue of $4.9BN (+12%), and adjusted EBITDA of $1.7BN, while margins expanded 140bps and adjusted EPS rose 24% to $9.39. The company’s core lodging and B2C/B2B businesses are benefiting from solid room-night growth of 115.7MM (+7% y/y), 19% B2B bookings growth, and consistent execution that has matched Booking in room nights for 12 straight quarters, easing concerns about market-share loss. Its outlook is further supported by $3.7B of LTM free cash flow, $2.3B returned through buybacks and dividends, and a valuation that still trades at a discount to OTA peers despite improving competitive positioning and a stronger growth algorithm.

Expedia Group is facing a negative setup because travel demand may keep deteriorating, which would pressure bookings growth and weaken the core transaction-fee revenue model that drives most sales and profits. Management’s maintained 4Q bookings guide was overshadowed by a disappointing underlying room-night outlook and a lower EBITDA expectation tied to margin compression, while further weakness in ADRs could sharply pressure profitability. Although the company may be less exposed to international disruption and more tied to the U.S. market, VRBO share losses in alternative accommodations remain a key risk and could cause growth to revert.