FA Stock Forecast & Price Target

First Advantage is supported by a clear fundamental turnaround, as 3Q revenue of $465.8 million beat estimates on broad-based labor market recovery, while adjusted EBITDA of $136.5 million and EPS of $0.38 also exceeded expectations. Its outlook improves further from 5% year-over-year base growth, 12.5% growth in cross-sell, up-sell and new logo wins, and strong 96% retention, all of which suggest the platform is gaining share and expanding wallet penetration in higher-hiring verticals. Management’s raised FY26 guide to $1.720 billion-$1.745 billion in revenue and $488 million-$498 million in adjusted EBITDA, plus the planned $125 million Data Diver acquisition, reinforces confidence in accelerating growth, proprietary data depth, and stronger long-term earnings power.

First Advantage is facing a bearish setup because a prolonged economic downturn and labor market pressure until mid-FY27 could depress base growth, while efforts to raise package density and gain share may only partly offset that weakness. Slower-than-expected hiring, delayed deleveraging, cost synergies, and cross-selling, plus EBITDA margin headwinds from softer topline growth and fixed costs, could also limit earnings resilience. With Silver Lake’s roughly 52% ownership creating potential selling overhang and regulatory risks in cybersecurity, privacy, and data protection, the stock could warrant lower multiple support around 12x FY27E or FY28 estimates.