First Bancorp (FBP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

First BanCorp is supported by exceptional profitability, with ROA reaching a record 2.02% in 2Q26 and still 1.98% in 3Q26 even as management modeled only a 1.8% range ahead. Stronger-than-expected results have been driven by margin expansion, well-managed expenses, solid loan and deposit growth of 5% and 6.6%, and lower NCOs and provisioning than historical levels, while commercial credit trends have remained pristine. Although NIM may moderate from the recent 5.18% FTE level and provisioning could rise toward 65bp, the company’s 17% CET1 ratio, resilient Puerto Rico franchise, and improving commercial activity support a constructive fundamental outlook.

First BanCorp is facing a muted fundamental setup as 2026 guidance points to flattish net interest margin, loan growth at the low end of the +3-5% target, and only limited upside from business expansion, which led to lower 2026E-2027E pre-provision net revenue estimates. The 3Q decline in NIM to 5.03% reflected weaker securities and loan yields alongside higher deposit costs, signaling pressure on core spread income even as operating expenses are guided at $128M-$132M per quarter and credit is expected to stay stable. With most revenue tied to Puerto Rico and consumer banking, the stock remains exposed to economic weakness, real estate deterioration, and any asset quality slippage that could impair profitability and revenue growth.