Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Freeport-McMoRan holds significant stakes in major copper mines, including a 49% ownership in Grasberg, positioning it as one of the largest copper miners globally, with sales of around 1.2 million metric tons of copper, 900,000 ounces of gold, and 70 million pounds of molybdenum in 2024. The company's substantial reserve base, with approximately 25 years of copper reserves remaining, supports a positive long-term outlook, particularly as expected rising copper demand over the long term aligns with Freeport’s operational advancements and commitment to growth projects like the Bagdad expansion. Additionally, a decrease in unit cash costs is anticipated in 2025, following a trend of rising costs, further enhancing Freeport's profitability and operational efficiency.

Freeport-McMoRan experienced a notable decline in adjusted EBITDA, which fell by 22% quarter-over-quarter and 8% year-over-year, reflecting significant operational challenges. The company's revised net asset value estimate decreased by 11% primarily due to increased capital expenditures, alongside disappointing three-year operating guidance, particularly concerning 2025 copper sales. Additionally, the revenue of $5.72 billion was 6% weaker than previously forecasted, compounded by planned capex significantly exceeding expectations for 2025-2026, contributing to an outlook of negligible free cash flow for the year.