FERG Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ferguson Enterprises is supported by a resilient North American footprint, with over 1,700 branches, 1 million customers, and a highly diversified supplier base that helps it capture share across plumbing, HVAC, repair and maintenance, and civil infrastructure end markets. Its 3Q’26 results showed the durability of that model, with net sales up 9% to $9.03 billion, organic sales up 7%, adjusted EBITDA of $1.03 billion, and especially strong non-residential growth of 15% driven by large capital projects, strong bidding activity, and share gains. The outlook remains constructive because management raised 2026 guidance, margins held near 30.9% gross and 9.6%-9.8% operating, and the business continues to generate strong free cash flow and M&A-led growth while remaining focused solely on North America.

Ferguson Enterprises is viewed negatively because a downturn in residential and non-residential construction could meaningfully weaken end-market demand, intensify competition, and erode pricing power. The downside case assumes CY’26E EBITDA of $3.09 BN at a 12.0x EV/EBITDA multiple, implying margin contraction and multiple compression if housing softness, US recession risk, or input-cost inflation pressures persist. Additional concerns include supply chain disruptions, commodity price fluctuations, and execution risk around organic and M&A growth in a business serving over 1 million customers through about 1,700 North American branches.