First Hawaiian (FHB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

First Hawaiian is well positioned by its entrenched Hawaii deposit franchise, holding about 32% of statewide deposit market share and benefiting from a loyal customer base that supports a low 1Q26 deposit cost of 1.20% versus the peer median of 1.45%. Margin expansion is a major fundamental driver, with net interest margin rising to 3.30% and management lifting its FY26 outlook to 3.26-3.27%, aided by asset repricing and about $400 million of loans and securities rolling each quarter at a positive spread. Credit quality and capital are also strong, with NPAs at 0.27% of loans and OREO, net charge-offs at 0.14%, CET1 at 13.1%, and ample capacity to support loan growth, dividends, and buybacks.

First Hawaiian is facing weakening core growth as EOP loans fell 3% LQA versus consensus expectations for 3% growth, prompting management to cut FY26 loan growth guidance to 1-2% from 3-4%, while deposits rose only 1% LQA and retail balances declined by $102 million. Credit quality also introduced noise, with LLP of $20.3 million versus $6.4 million expected and NCOs jumping to 0.60% on a $12.5 million partial charge-off of a downtown Seattle office loan, alongside a 5 bp rise in NPAs to 0.32%. Despite a historically strong deposit franchise, the stock still trades at 12.9x the 2027 EPS estimate and 2.08x TBV, leaving limited upside if loan growth, fee income near $220 million, or credit metrics disappoint.