FLL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Full House Resorts is supported by a strengthening American Place catalyst, where the temporary Illinois casino has operated for 3.5 to four years, the license has been extended through 2029, and management expects financing to enable a permanent opening in the second half of 2028 or late 2028/early 2029. Encouraging property performance suggests EBITDA could rise to $39M to $42M by 2027E, which implies attractive returns and progress toward the company’s long-term $100M EBITDA goal at maturity, while still allowing discretionary FCF to roughly break even during construction. Chamonix also offers upside, as revenue in Colorado is up 3% to 4% over the trailing twelve months and even incremental EBITDA could meaningfully reduce leverage, making the stock’s 6.0x to 6.5x 2028E EBITDA valuation look reasonable for its growth trajectory.

Full House Resorts is facing a weak fundamental setup because it missed EBITDA expectations in both 3Q26 and 2Q26, with 3Q26 EBITDA of $15M coming in 8% below consensus and down 2% YoY despite revenue of about $82M rising 5% YoY. Its earnings quality is undermined by concentration risk, as more than 50% of EBITDA is projected to come from just two properties, while Chamonix remains a persistent drag and is still expected to lose money for a third consecutive year. The outlook is further pressured by financing risk tied to the remaining American Place project and by potential iGaming cannibalization, while the stock also screens poorly on valuation in the bottom 5% of the Macquarie Quant Alpha model.