Fluor (FLR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Fluor is benefiting from a sharp inflection in bookings, with record new awards of $10.872 billion, a 2.9x book-to-burn ratio, and backlog rising to $34.305 billion, up 21% year over year, which gives unusually strong visibility into future revenue and execution. Its positive outlook is also supported by a more diversified mix across Urban Solutions, Mission Solutions, and Energy Solutions, plus higher-margin new awards, improved operating cash flow guidance of $430 million to $460 million, and a balance sheet that has strengthened as legacy problem projects move into the rearview mirror. Looking ahead, management’s first 2027 view calls for low double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth, underpinned by large opportunities in LNG, data centers, copper, power, and nuclear, suggesting that recent momentum is becoming a durable earnings cycle rather than a one-quarter boost.

Fluor is facing a weak fundamental setup because its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was cut to $500M–$525M from $525M–$560M, signaling softer profitability despite a still-large $15.5B revenue base in 2025. Cash generation also remains poor, with $324M of free cash flow outflow and $317M of operating cash outflow in the quarter, while legacy loss projects and a $357M tax payment tied to NuScale monetization continue to weigh on liquidity. Although Energy Solutions, Urban Solutions, and Mission Solutions showed isolated margin improvement, the reliance on close-out gains, execution recovery, and share repurchases to support results leaves the business exposed to project execution, macro, supply chain, and labor risks.