Flywire Corp (FLYW) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Flywire Corp has demonstrated a robust financial performance, evidenced by a 19.1% year-over-year increase in gross profit, reaching $75.6 million, and an expansion of gross margins by approximately 90 basis points to 67.0%. The strategic acquisition of Sertifi is anticipated to enhance revenue by an additional $35 million to $40 million in FY'25, contributing to a growth trajectory that surpasses the corporate average. Furthermore, the company's operational efficiency is reflected in an expected expansion of adjusted EBITDA margins by 200-400 basis points in FY'25, alongside a significant 680 basis points margin increase in 4Q24 driven by strong gross profit growth and effective management of operating expenses.

Flywire Corp's outlook appears negative due to a significant decline in revenue from Canada, which decreased by 50% year-over-year, attributed to the cancellation of a fast-track study visa program resulting in a $3M revenue impact and an additional $3.3M unfavorable headwind from foreign exchange fluctuations. Despite the company's prior significant revenue growth, it remains uncertain whether it can achieve sustainable profitability, especially as management has indicated a materially lower revenue outlook for FY25, projecting only 10%-14% constant currency growth compared to previous estimates of 21%-22%. Furthermore, the anticipated EBITDA of $121M represents a 15% decrease from base estimates, accentuating concerns about the company's ability to scale volumes and maintain margins, particularly within the education vertical.