Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Shift4 Payments Inc. reported a year-over-year increase in end-to-end payment volume, reaching $50 billion in 2Q25, reflecting a 25% growth despite a deceleration from the previous quarter. The company’s recent Global Blue acquisition is expected to significantly bolster its financials, with reported EBITDA increasing by $125 million and overall revenue from the acquisition contributing $300 million. With strong growth potential driven by multiple strategic pillars and substantial capital raised for further development, Shift4 Payments maintains a positive outlook for continued expansion in the payment processing market.

The payments industry is facing headwinds from inflation, rising interest rates, and a maturing consumer card market, which has resulted in suppressed e-commerce growth and limited secular tailwinds for companies like Shift4 Payments Inc. Concerns surrounding the company's organic growth pace are heightened by a second-quarter deceleration and unchanged fiscal year 2025 end-to-end (E2E) volume projections, which suggest stagnation amidst increasing competition. Additionally, with 60% of Shift4's volume reliant on the declining restaurant and hospitality sectors, the company's exposure to a deteriorating macroeconomic environment poses significant risks to its earnings outlook.