First Solar (FSLR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

First Solar is attractive because it combines a 44 GW contracted backlog with strong visibility into future revenue and margins, while its U.S.-centered manufacturing base and cadmium telluride technology reduce dependence on Chinese crystalline-silicon supply chains. The 3Q26 results showed revenue of $1,231mm, gross margin of 57.9%, adj. EBITDA of $744mm, and EPS of $5.30, underscoring resilient profitability even as bookings moderated and cash remained solid at $1.6bn. Fundamental upside is further supported by Section 45X credits, the Section 232 minimum import price environment, and margin expansion from South Carolina, India exports, and CuRe conversions in 2027 and 2028.

First Solar is facing a weaker fundamental setup because lower FY26 guidance points to softer demand and execution, with revenue cut to $4.6-$4.9 billion, adjusted EBITDA trimmed to $2.55-$2.75 billion, and volume sold reduced to 16.0-17.0 GW. Its high-volume model leaves margins highly exposed to yield and utilization, while recent utilization around 20% at the Malaysia facility signals costly underabsorption and a binary decision in 1H27 that could remove SEA volumes from the model in 2H2027+. The stock also depends heavily on policy support, including Section 45X credits of $2.07-$2.19 billion and certainty of IRA benefits through 2032, so any change in federal incentives, trade policy, or supply availability could pressure growth, margins, and cash flow.