FTAI Stock Forecast & Price Target

FTAI Aviation is viewed positively because 3Q26 adj. EBITDA of $348M beat consensus by 9%, Aerospace Products revenue surged 76% YoY to $910M, and AP generated $282M of adj. EBITDA at a 31.0% margin, showing strong demand and pricing power in the legacy narrowbody aftermarket. Management’s reaffirmed 2027 Power guidance of $450M-$750M, plus the $1.465B initial Mod-1 order and the ramp in SCI, materially de-risk the new growth engine and support confidence in continued share gains, with FCF of $439M YTD and net debt at about 2.2x run-rate adj. EBITDA. The business also benefits from long-run structural tailwinds in CFM56 and V2500 engines, greater geographic reach, and an asset-light SCI platform that should expand cash generation and recurring demand.

FTAI Aviation is exposed to multiple fundamental headwinds, including greater-than-expected retirements of 737NG and A320ceo aircraft, uncertainty around PMA approvals, and weaker-than-expected Aviation Leasing performance. The company already reported adjusted EBITDA of $291.4mn below consensus, with Aerospace Products offsetting a sharp AL shortfall to $88.2mn as capacity was redirected and aircraft sales to SCI slipped, underscoring execution risk in the transition. With downside 2028 adj. EBITDA modeled at $1.7B and a lower 9.2x valuation multiple, the outlook reflects slower growth, regulatory risk, and dependence on CFM56 demand, lease collections, and Power contribution.