FWRG Stock Forecast & Price Target

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. reported a notable increase in total revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching $263.3 million, marking a year-over-year growth of 7.6%. The company's EBITDA also experienced an increase to $155.0 million, supported by lower-than-expected general and administrative expenses, further indicating operational efficiency. Additionally, with expectations for positive same-store sales growth in FY25 and improvements in traffic trends, First Watch is positioned to capitalize on its marketing investments and expanded offerings, suggesting potential for continued growth and market share gains.

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. is facing a challenging financial landscape as evidenced by its restaurant-level margins, which declined approximately 30 basis points year-over-year to 20.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, despite meeting street expectations. The company's adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2025 is projected to fall about $4 million short of the previous year due to rising commodity costs and labor inflation, compounded by the less favorable performance of newly opened units. Additionally, elevated macroeconomic pressures could negatively impact same-store sales, potentially resulting in revenues landing at the lower end of long-term growth expectations, further exacerbating the company's financial challenges.