GDS Hlds (GDS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

GDS Holdings has shown a compelling valuation with a recent increase in its price target to $50.00, reflecting a multiple of approximately 16.5x estimated 2026 EBITDA, signifying confidence in the management's execution of its strategic plans. The successful launch of its C-REIT has yielded a valuation of about 22.0x 2026 EBITDA, surpassing prior expectations and indicating a significant improvement from the current valuation of around 12.0x EBITDA. Furthermore, the company's international operations are anticipated to generate over $1.0 billion in EBITDA by 2028, alongside potential for a substantial increase in value through its ongoing C-REIT conversion process.

GDS Holdings faces a challenging outlook due to ongoing weakness in the Chinese tech market and structural changes in the Chinese REIT market, which adversely affect the company's sum-of-the-parts valuation. There are substantial non-China execution risks associated with its expansion outside its core market, along with pricing pressures, elevated customer churn, and government regulatory risks that further complicate its operational landscape. Additionally, despite potential upside from the C-REIT and the upcoming IPO of DayOne, the current valuation of approximately 12.0x estimated EBITDA for 2026 may not accurately reflect the company’s underlying risks and challenges.