Geron (GERN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Geron Corp is positioned for a positive outlook due to the recent approval of Rytelo in the European Union, which is expected to expand revenue streams starting in 2026 and is anticipated to supplement the ongoing U.S. launch. The potential for Rytelo to double the commercial opportunity in treating relapsed/refractory myelofibrosis enhances its market prospects, especially given the favorable prescription feedback indicating effective performance. With experienced leadership guiding the commercial strategy and proactive efforts to enhance physician education and awareness, Geron may significantly increase market penetration and sales across various treatment settings.

Geron Corp has experienced a negative outlook as management acknowledged a slowdown in the momentum of the Rytelo launch for lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (LR-MDS), leading to flat revenue trends in recent months. The company has also seen disappointing uptake among second-line (2L) patients, which falls below initial expectations, and has revised its peak sales projections for Rytelo down to $1.0 billion from $1.2 billion. Additionally, the outlook is further clouded by potential risks related to safety signals, clinical efficacy, competition, regulatory issues, and intellectual property protection, contributing to a lack of near-term growth catalysts.