Grocery Outlet (GO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp is positioning itself for future growth through strategic business restructuring, targeting the opening of 30-35 new stores in 2026 and enhancing its store refresh initiatives with plans for at least 150 refreshes that year. The company is also focused on maintaining high levels of customer satisfaction by ensuring stock availability on approximately 400 core items and improving supply chain efficiencies. Notably, positive customer traffic in November indicates a potential recovery trajectory, aligning with expectations for a return to normalized growth driven by these strategic efforts.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp has pre-announced that it will likely miss its 4Q25 expected results, with weak sales trends attributed to the effects of the government shutdown on SNAP benefits and ongoing marketing changes. The company's same-store sales comparisons have demonstrated a concerning decline, as evidenced by an 8.2% drop in Electronic Benefits Transfer (EBT) transactions and a mere 0.5% decrease in non-EBT transactions in November, leading to an adjusted expectation of flat same-store sales for the quarter. The significant pressure on the average transaction amount stems from a reduction in units per transaction, indicating a diminished spending power among the company’s core customer base amid challenging economic conditions.