GPI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Group 1 Automotive has demonstrated robust financial growth, with total revenue reaching $19.9 billion in 2024, bolstered by recent strategic expansions such as the acquisition of Inchcape UK, which is projected to add approximately $2.7 billion in annual revenue. The company's significant presence in metropolitan areas across the US and the UK, coupled with a strong performance in aftersales and F&I segments, which each rose by 12% and 11% respectively, indicates effective operational leverage and margin improvement. This positive momentum is further evidenced by a record performance in the first quarter of 2025, with sales increasing by 6.5%, positioning the company favorably for sustained growth.

Group 1 Automotive is experiencing significant operational challenges, with a projected 5% decline in Adjusted EBITDA, resulting in an estimated figure of $990 million, amidst broader industry demand reductions exceeding 20% from peak levels. The company's adjusted EPS has dropped by 11.4% to $39.21, accompanied by an EBITDA margin contraction to 4.6%, a decline of 8% year-over-year. Despite maintaining competitive same-store performance relative to peers, the overarching negative financial trends raise concerns about the firm's future profitability and market position.