Horizon (HBNC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Horizon Bancorp's positive outlook is supported by an expected increase in earnings and profitability, prompting a modest adjustment in target price multiples to 10.0x for 2026 estimates and approximately 195% of year-end tangible book value (TBV). Furthermore, the company's return profile is projected to improve significantly, with a notable increase of around 50 basis points to return on assets (ROA), indicating a stronger balance sheet. Additionally, the overall adjustments reflect a potential total return of approximately 26% under a base case scenario, signaling strong future performance prospects.

Horizon Bancorp's stock outlook is negatively impacted by a reduced earnings and profitability forecast, which suggests that the bank may fail to meet previously communicated expectations. The company's anticipated slower loan growth in the low single digits, compared to a base case growth of approximately 6%, indicates challenges in revenue generation and margin expansion due to a shrinking earning asset base and increased competition for deposits. Additionally, rising expenses projected at 6%-7% year-over-year—coupled with elevated provisioning for non-performing loans—further contribute to the forecast of diminished financial performance and valuation pressure.