Home Depot (HD) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Home Depot's strategic acquisitions, including the integration of SRS and the planned purchase of GMS, have positioned the company to capitalize on a growing market for professional services, anticipating significant increases in contractor spending through its Pro Desk and Marketplace. With home equity gaining approximately 80% and a total addressable market now valued at $1.1 trillion, Home Depot is well-placed to improve its market share, especially in the complex pro segment, which currently reflects an estimated 15% market penetration. Projected sales growth ranges from 2.5% to 4% year-over-year, alongside operating profit growth outpacing sales, indicates a robust outlook for earnings per share in the mid-single to high-single digits.

Home Depot has reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, projecting a ~5% decline in adjusted EPS to $14.48, with a lowered EPS estimate for 2026 to $15.00, reflecting a contraction in operating margins and decreased comparable sales growth. The leverage on U.S. housing stock stands at approximately 27%, significantly lower than the 54% seen at the onset of the previous recovery, while housing turnover rates have decreased to about 2.9%, below the long-term average of 4.1%. Additionally, ongoing expansion into wholesale distribution is expected to exert a negative impact on margins, combined with adverse trends in employment that may further risk retail sales.