Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Harley-Davidson has demonstrated strong financial performance, reporting a 17% year-over-year revenue increase to $1,341 million in the recent quarter, driven by an uptick in margins aided by a significant transaction within Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The company captured approximately 37% of the heavyweight domestic market in 2024, supported by impressive shipment growth, including a notable 32.7% increase year-over-year in total motorcycle shipments. Looking ahead to 2026, Harley-Davidson is poised for continued growth, particularly in lower-priced bikes such as the Softail, which saw a 9% increase in retail sales in North America, indicating a positive outlook for overall demand in the motorcycle segment.

Harley-Davidson has experienced significant revenue decline, with a notable 22.6% decrease in HDMC sales attributed to reduced motorcycle shipments, reflecting a struggle to maintain market presence. The company's gross profit margins have deteriorated, with a drop to 26.4% in 3Q25, largely driven by unfavorable operating leverage, increased tariff costs, and negative foreign exchange impacts. Furthermore, the consolidated operating margin experienced a decline of 830 basis points year-over-year, exacerbated by rising operating expenses and falling retail sales, which decreased by 6.0% year-over-year in 3Q25.