Hologic (HOLX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Hologic's stock outlook is positively influenced by expected high-single digit growth in its Molecular Diagnostics segment, supported by an increased utilization of its Panther systems, which have more than 3,300 units installed globally. The company anticipates a 4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenue from calendar year 2024 to 2026, driven by organic growth in procedure volumes, new product launches, and strategic acquisitions, alongside projected annual margin expansion of approximately 30 basis points. Additionally, a bull case scenario indicates potential revenue growth could accelerate to the high-single digits, underpinned by robust performance in Diagnostics and Breast Health, leading to improved operating margins and earnings significantly surpassing consensus estimates.

Hologic's management has recently revised its long-term revenue growth targets downward from 5-7% to a more modest mid-single-digit growth estimate, reflecting broader concerns about the company's revenue trajectory, particularly in the Diagnostics and Breast Health segments. The company's projections for constant currency revenue growth have been adjusted to between 1.3% and 2.5%, significantly lower than previous forecasts, and organic revenue growth has also seen a decrease, indicating potential ongoing challenges in meeting growth expectations. Additionally, a notable decline in Breast Health sales by 5.8% and concerns about customer purchasing delays further underpin the negative outlook for Hologic's financial performance in fiscal years 2025 and 2026.