Hologic (HOLX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Hologic is positioned for a positive financial outlook due to its diversified business model, which includes a strong focus on diagnostics, accounting for 44% of total sales, complemented by significant contributions from breast health and surgical segments. The company has demonstrated robust growth potential, particularly in its Molecular Diagnostics segment, which is expected to maintain high-single digit growth as the utilization of its Panther systems increases, supported by a sizable installed base of over 3,300 systems globally. Additionally, projected annual margin expansion of approximately 30 basis points, combined with share repurchases, suggests the potential for over 10% earnings growth, further enhancing Hologic's financial attractiveness.

Hologic has recently adjusted its long-term revenue growth target down to mid-single digits, anticipating growth to be below this range during CY25, indicating weakening performance in key segments. The bear case scenario suggests revenue growth may slow to the low-single digits, specifically driven by weaknesses in Diagnostics and Breast Health, alongside declining organic sales in the Breast Health segment by 5.8% in F1Q25. Additionally, lowered expectations for organic revenue growth and EPS estimates demonstrate increasing challenges in achieving positive financial performance, prompting concerns about Hologic's growth trajectory and overall financial health moving forward.