Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Howmet Aerospace is positioned to benefit from multiple simultaneous upcycles in commercial aerospace, defense, and industrial gas turbines, with management now expecting gas turbine sales to double from about $1 billion in 2025 to $2 billion by 2028 and potentially ~$2.5 billion by 2030. Its Engine Products and Fastening Systems franchises appear especially strong, supported by sole- or single-source content, difficult qualification barriers, and rising spares demand as shop visits, time-on-wing issues, and widebody production ramps lift mix and pricing. The company’s 3Q26 results and updated outlook also reinforce improving profitability, with 2026E EPS raised to $5.55 and 2027E EPS to $6.70, while EBITDA margin is expected to expand from 29.3% in 2025 to 32.3% in 2026E and 33.5% in 2027E.

Howmet Aerospace is facing a fundamentally fragile setup because roughly 70% of FY2025 sales were tied to commercial and defense aerospace, leaving revenue highly exposed to Boeing build-rate disruptions, OEM delays, and volatile order timing that management itself has linked to material financial impact. Its reliance on limited-source titanium, nickel, cobalt, and superalloy inputs also creates margin risk, since supply interruptions or cost spikes can halt qualified parts or compress Engine Products and Engineered Structures margins before pricing can fully reset. The outlook is further pressured by execution risk in the ~$1.8B CAM acquisition, which was expected to be roughly EPS-breakeven in FY2026 after debt service, while capacity, labor, tariffs, and geopolitical exposure could limit how quickly demand converts into durable earnings.