Ibotta Inc (IBTA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ibotta Inc. has demonstrated significant progress in enhancing its marketplace demand, with a focus on expanding relationships with CPG advertisers and third-party publishers, which is expected to drive revenue and profitability growth. The company's strategic pivot from a direct-to-consumer app to a performance marketing network has successfully scaled opportunities, improved unit economics, and allowed for increased advertiser spending, evidenced by early adoption by two advertisers engaged in cost-per-install deals. Additionally, Ibotta’s enhanced publisher scale through partnerships, such as the addition of Walmart to its Performance Network, positions the company favorably to capture a larger share of advertising budgets moving forward.

Ibotta Inc. has reported a revenue miss for the fourth quarter and provided first quarter guidance that is approximately 50% below previous estimates, primarily due to ongoing supply chain challenges that have persisted across multiple quarters. The company's redemption revenue growth is projected to slow significantly from 76% in 2023 to merely 26% in 2024, with further declines anticipated to 8% in 2025, prompting a reduction in total revenue growth assumptions from 18% to 12% for the first half of 2025. Additionally, difficulties in adding new publishers to the platform, combined with potential budget exhaustion impacting redemption expectations, contribute to a bearish outlook on Ibotta's growth trajectory.