IREN Ltd (IREN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

IREN is viewed positively because its AI Cloud transition is already translating into tangible operating momentum: revenue rose 66% QoQ to $228m, AI Cloud revenue nearly tripled to $200m, gross margin held at 86%, and operating ARR doubled to about $1bn. The case is further strengthened by a $20.3bn backlog, about two-thirds investment-grade, plus newly signed contracts at roughly $22m of annual revenue per IT-MW and a short-term deal above $40m per IT-MW, with customer prepayments covering around 90% of GPU capex. Its vertically integrated model, more than 5GW of secured power across over 30,000 acres, and close work with Microsoft support a capital-efficient expansion path with meaningful upside from converting bitcoin-mining capacity to AI infrastructure.

IREN is viewed negatively because its growth story is increasingly constrained by financing risk, with capex cut to about $20bn yet still requiring $6bn to raise, while management explicitly said it will not “grow at all costs” and is slowing builds until funding markets reopen. Although 1Q27 revenue rose to about $228M and AI cloud revenue nearly tripled to $200M, adjusted EBITDA missed consensus at $66M, cash operating expenses are expected to rise $50–60M q/q, and the company still expects no material contribution from incremental Horizon and Mackenzie capacity in F2Q. The outlook is further weakened by delayed MSFT-related timing, a slower ramp to the >$4bn operating ARR target now pushed to January 2027 and potentially February, and sharply lower FY27/FY28 revenue and EBITDA estimates reflecting execution, capital-markets, and GPU ramp risks.