Gartner (IT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Gartner is attractive because its core research franchise still drives about 80% of revenue and 85% of contribution margin, supported by a subscription model with multi-year contracts, high retention, and roughly 4% annual wallet growth before new-logo gains. It has also delivered consistent execution, with 3Q adjusted revenue of $1.505B, adjusted EBITDA of $364M at a 24.2% margin, and adjusted EPS of $3.59, while 2026 guidance was raised to $6.405B+ revenue, $1.615B+ EBITDA, $14.65+ EPS, and $1.235B+ free cash flow. The outlook is further reinforced by improving client engagement, double-digit conference attendance growth, disciplined pricing, and a large cash-generating base that funds buybacks and selective acquisitions while leaving room for margin expansion.

Gartner is facing a weaker fundamental setup as its core contract value growth lost momentum, with ex-Fed CV growth missing expectations and management pulling the prior ~4% exit-rate target, which makes a near-term reacceleration less credible. New business is also deteriorating, as new sales fell 4% and 3% y/y for GTS and GBS respectively, while longer sales cycles, macro volatility, Middle East conflict, tariff- and oil-impacted industries, and AI-driven budget reallocation are weighing on demand. Although margins, ROIC, and buybacks still support EPS growth, the outlook is negative because the stock appears unlikely to re-rate without clear evidence of sustained CV acceleration, especially as GenAI disintermediation risk and multiple compression pressure valuation.