Itron (ITRI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Itron is positioned for strength because its 3Q2026 results showed a clear operating beat, with adjusted EPS of $1.94 versus $1.56 expected and EBITDA of $114.5MM versus $94.1MM, supported by lower SG&A and better gross profit. Management’s raised FY2026 EPS guidance of $6.72–$6.82, along with structural margin improvement, ~25% ARR growth to $423MM, and net leverage falling to 1.9x, reinforces the view that the business is increasingly higher quality and more resilient. The main offset is softer bookings, but with a record pipeline, multiyear gas opportunities not yet modeled, and recurring revenue expanding across Resiliency and Outcomes, the fundamental setup remains constructive.

Itron is facing a weak fundamental setup because 4Q2026 guidance for revenue of $621MM–$636MM and EPS of $1.70–$1.80 came in about 2% below FactSet at the midpoint, while SG&A is expected to rise to roughly $100MM from about $84MM in 3Q, pressuring near-term profitability. Bookings are the bigger concern: 3Q bookings of $482MM missed the $535MM model, book-to-bill was only 0.80x, trailing-12-month book-to-bill stayed below 1.0x at 0.97x, and total backlog slipped to about $4.3B. The bearish case is further reinforced by risks of delayed Urbint/Locusview integration, prolonged EPS dilution of about $0.38/share into FY2028E, slower Resiliency margin benefits, and utility capex deferrals that could hurt Networked Solutions revenue and margins.