JACK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Jack In The Box Inc. is implementing a revised barbell pricing strategy that emphasizes value, which is expected to drive sequential same-store sales (SSS) improvement and enhance operational performance throughout the year. The recent improvement in SSS by approximately 300 basis points in 4Q25 indicates a positive response to these strategic changes, particularly following a successful pivot in marketing efforts. Additionally, management's focus on strengthening the balance sheet and separating Del Taco to refocus on the core Jack in the Box brand is perceived as a progressive move that could further bolster the company's financial position.

Jack In The Box is projecting a net unit decline of approximately 2-4% for FY26, which highlights its current focus on streamlining its operations rather than expanding its footprint. The company reported a system comparable sales (comps) decline of 7.4% in the latest quarter, falling short of market expectations, indicating ongoing challenges in its sales performance. Additionally, the deteriorating fundamentals are further evidenced by rising costs related to labor, food, and utilities, coupled with external economic pressures such as higher unemployment and declining consumer spending, which pose significant risks to the company's financial outlook.