nLIGHT Inc (LASR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

nLight is positioned as a scaled, vertically integrated leader in high-power lasers, with best-in-class fiber-laser technology and proprietary coherent beam-combination architecture that can support systems up to 1 megawatt. Its outlook is supported by major directed-energy wins such as HELSI and the $44 million initial JLWS award, with a program ceiling of up to $627 million, while directed-energy funding is estimated to rise from $401 million in FY25A to $1,047 million in FY27R. Alongside metal additive manufacturing growth, revenue is modeled at $304.8 million in 2026 and $345 million in 2027, with gross margin expected to improve from about 31% to 34% and adjusted EBITDA margin from roughly 12% to the low twenties by 2030.

nLight is exposed to a fragile near-term setup where supply-chain constraints and Chinese export scrutiny cut the Q3 top-line forecast by $17M and helped drive a roughly 50% share decline since Aug. 6. The bull case depends heavily on U.S. defense awards such as HELSI II and the JLWS, yet only $44M of the $627M JLWS ceiling is funded today, and any FY27 appropriations delay could push growth farther out. Fundamentally, the business also faces concentration and mix risk, with the top ten customers representing about 75% of 2025 revenue and development gross margin at just 12.4% versus 39.2% for Laser Products.