LendingClub (LC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

LendingClub Corp is benefiting from a robust personal loan market, which has experienced an approximate 14% CAGR over the past 15 years, contributing to a forecast of 32% year-over-year growth in loan originations in 2025, ahead of significant earnings per share (EPS) growth anticipated at around 150% for the current year. The company is expected to achieve notable margin expansions of 260 and 390 basis points in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with projections indicating EPS reaching over $2 by 2027, supported by the advantages derived from StructuredCertificates and a strong competitive positioning in the credit card debt consolidation sector. Furthermore, LendingClub's CET1 capital ratio stands at a solid 18.0%, reflecting its stable credit performance and excess capital generation, which enables the company to initiate capital return actions, signaling further growth potential.

LendingClub's stock outlook is negatively impacted by credit provisions falling 4% below consensus and a net charge-off (NCO) rate of 2.85%, which is significantly below the long-term underwriting levels of 4.5%-5.0%. Additionally, the ongoing constraints in marketplace lending have raised concerns over the potential underperformance of earnings per share (EPS), especially given that origination volumes are still substantially lower than two years ago. Furthermore, the company has seen its market share diminish from approximately 10% to the mid-single digits due to portfolio stress linked to earlier loan vintages during the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating ongoing challenges in customer acquisition and credit quality.