LightPath Technologies (LPTH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

LightPath Technologies is projecting FY25 revenue to reach $38.0 million, an increase from previous estimates, driven by expectations of multiple new program awards that indicate a strong growth trajectory. The company is poised to see significant improvements in gross margins, potentially reaching mid-30% levels, particularly aided by the recent acquisition of G5 Infrared, which is expected to generate an additional $4.4 million in revenue. Long-term outlook remains positive, with prospects for annual revenue to approach $100 million supported by a robust pipeline of opportunities.

LightPath Technologies Inc. has reported a gross margin decline to 26.0%, which marks a significant decrease of 360 basis points year-over-year and a 790 basis point drop sequentially, indicating deteriorating profitability. The company faces near-term revenue headwinds due to new restrictions on exporting germanium from China, further compounded by challenges from customer concentration and declining product pricing. Additionally, the reliance on convertible preferred equity for financing the G5 Infrared acquisition raises significant dilution risks and contributes to share volatility, undermining investor confidence and leading to a substantial decline in stock performance relative to broader market indices.