LSPD Stock Forecast & Price Target

Lightspeed Commerce is well positioned because 4QFY26 delivered solid fundamental momentum, with adjusted gross profit up 15.1% to $129.5 million, transaction revenue up 17%, and adjusted EBITDA of $15.1 million in line with guidance. Its growth thesis is supported by accelerating customer location gains, with growth market locations up 11% in FY26 and growth engine locations up 11% in 4Q, while management’s FY27 organic gross profit guidance of 12% to 16% still implies expansion despite macro conservatism. The outlook is further strengthened by a streamlined business after the Upserve divestiture and an attractive valuation at 9x FY27E EV/EBITDA, with upside driven by software revenue, payments penetration, and continued margin improvement.

Lightspeed Commerce is viewed cautiously because the business still looks like a “show me story,” with the bearish view centered on deteriorating earnings quality as gross profit shifts toward lending funded by its own balance sheet and capex rises. The 4QFY26 beat was helped by a roughly $4 million nonrecurring cloud-provider rebate, which makes underlying performance look less robust, while FY27 organic GP growth guidance implies a deceleration versus FY26 and falls below the FY25-FY28 CAGR target. From FY26 to FY29, the bear case assumes a -7% total customer CAGR, -15% SaaS ARPU CAGR, flat GTV/location, and only 45% Lightspeed Payments penetration in FY28, alongside a 12% mature EBITDA margin and 8x EBITDA multiple.