Marriott (MAR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Marriott International reported fees of $1,400 million and EBITDA of $1,415 million, both of which exceeded projections, indicating robust operational performance driven by higher profit in both individual market fee (IMF) and owned and leased (O&L) segments. The 2026 group pace increased to 8%, up from 7% at the end of the first quarter, suggesting strong and sustained demand for group bookings beyond 2025. Additionally, the company's pipeline and signings grew by 5.5% and 3% year-over-year, with international growth at 5.3%, highlighting a positive trend particularly within the luxury segment, which is outperforming select-service offerings.

Marriott International is experiencing a concerning decline in government-related revenue per available room (RevPAR), which fell by 17% year-over-year in the second quarter, indicating potential volatility in its revenue streams. The company's pipeline includes a substantial number of rooms under construction, representing 40% of total pipeline and 14% of existing rooms, which may exacerbate oversupply issues. Furthermore, with growth rates expected to remain constrained, potentially below 5% organically in the coming years, the outlook for Marriott's financial performance appears negative amid rising interest rates and competitive pressures.