Marriott (MAR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Marriott International has demonstrated strong financial performance, with total fees of $1,400 million surpassing expectations and an EBITDA of $1,415 million, reflecting robust profit from Incentive Management Fees (IMF) and Other Lease (O&L) income. Additionally, the company's positive group demand outlook is underscored by an increase in the 2026 group pace to 8%, indicating sustained demand for hotel group bookings beyond 2025. Furthermore, the growth in the pipeline and signings of 5.5% and 3% year-over-year respectively, alongside strong performance in international markets and luxury segments, further supports a favorable long-term growth trajectory for Marriott International.

Marriott International has faced significant challenges, as evidenced by a year-over-year decline in government-related revenue per available room (RevPAR), which fell by 17% in the second quarter, worsening from a 10% decline in March. The company's room construction pipeline indicates that 40% of new additions are under construction, while only 14% of existing rooms are currently operational, suggesting potential overcapacity issues. Additionally, the organic growth forecast remains pessimistic, with the company projected to struggle to achieve the 5% growth target in the upcoming years due to unfavorable interest rates impacting development.