MBLY Stock Forecast & Price Target

Mobileye Global is supported by a core business that continues to outperform, with YTD shipments up 11% despite a slight decline in global automotive production, 3Q26 revenue of $492.0MM above expectations, and FY26 revenue guidance raised to $2.008BN at the midpoint. The company’s outlook is strengthened by expanding higher-ASP programs, as SuperVision shipments exceeded the prior FY expectation of 60k and were raised to 65k, while new Cloud-Enhanced ADAS wins and a $125-per-vehicle Surround ADAS platform should deepen its value proposition. Longer term, management says Volkswagen programs remain on track for 2027 and 2028, and the ongoing shift from a monocular vision supplier toward an autonomous-driving software platform supports recurring revenue potential and improved mix.

Mobileye Global is facing a weakening fundamental setup because its core Base ADAS business appears vulnerable to OEM insourcing as automakers shift toward centralized compute architectures, which could materially shrink its addressable content if Mobileye refuses to license software onto third-party silicon. The company’s higher-margin premium products have also failed to diversify beyond Volkswagen Group, while key program timing keeps slipping: SuperVision was originally expected in late 2026, Chauffeur moved to Q2/28, and even a new award tied to Porsche/Audi would not reach market until at least 2030+. Near-term financials reinforce the caution, with 2025 revenue of about $1.9B, 36M Base ADAS chips sold, 4Q26 implied revenue of $450MM below estimates, and EPS of $0.08 versus the Street’s $0.10, suggesting growth and margin inflection remain elusive.