Malibu Boats (MBUU) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Malibu Boats is well-positioned for growth, with projected FY26 sales growth of approximately 11%, driven by a 10% rebound in volumes and low single-digit price increases, indicating strong market demand for its products. The company's highly variable cost structure allows it to generate significant free cash flow, roughly $30 million in the recent quarter, which can enhance its earnings power, especially as inventory normalizes and market volumes recover. Additionally, Malibu's strategic expansions into various boat segments and accessories, coupled with a strong marine industry backdrop and an active outdoor lifestyle trend, further support its positive outlook and potential for increased margins ahead.

Malibu Boats has reduced its revenue guidance from an expectation of flat to low-single-digit growth to a forecast of flat to low-single-digit declines year-over-year, reflecting a broader industry volume decline that has trended closer to a 10%-12% decrease. Financial results show a 26.3% drop in AEBITDA to $16.9 million and a 5.1% decline in adjusted net sales to $200.3 million, primarily due to an 11% decrease in volume, indicating ongoing challenges in the market. Furthermore, a significant decrease in earnings per share, which fell 46% to $0.31, alongside anticipated continued declines in sales and AEBITDA for fiscal year 2025, underscores concerns regarding consumer spending trends and overall industry demand.