Malibu Boats (MBUU) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Malibu Boats reported a significant growth in its financial performance, with 4Q25 adjusted EBITDA increasing to $19.7 million compared to a loss of $4.1 million in the previous year, while the adjusted EBITDA margin rose by 1,210 basis points year-over-year to 9.5%. The Malibu segment demonstrated remarkable unit volume growth of 78.7% year-over-year, contributing to a 114% increase in net sales to $80.3 million, indicating a recovery from prior year de-stocking activities. Additionally, the company's gross margin for 4Q25 improved to 15.8%, up 790 basis points year-over-year, attributed to reduced promotional activity and a favorable shift towards higher-margin models.

Malibu Boats is experiencing a challenging financial outlook, as evidenced by a projected decline in sales and lower adjusted EBITDA margin guidance, anticipated to be between 8% and 9%, compared to analyst expectations of 7.9%. The company's Saltwater Fishing segment showed a significant year-over-year unit volume decrease of 9.3%, compounded by an expected decline in retail activity in FY26, particularly in the first half, where declines are projected at a high-single-digit to low-double-digit percentage. Additionally, various downside risks, including a potential decrease in consumer confidence and adverse economic conditions impacting discretionary spending on high-ticket items, further contribute to a negative sentiment surrounding Malibu Boats's stock performance.