McKesson (MCK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

McKesson is positioned for durable outperformance because it keeps beating and raising on the back of specialty prescription volume growth, including GLP-1s, while its O&M segment posted 23% adjusted operating income growth and core NA Pharma and O&M EBIT each appear to be growing above 20%. The company is also expanding its growth engine through strategic acquisitions like Precision Medicine Group, Spectrum Vision, and a minority stake in Option Care Health, which should deepen its specialty, oncology, and services capabilities while adding incremental EPS accretion. With specialty drugs expected to exceed 55% of total drug spending by 2028 and McKesson’s digital distribution network delivering over 99% order accuracy, the business combines strong operating leverage, resilient demand, and attractive long-term margin expansion potential.

McKesson is facing a deteriorating fundamental setup because a meaningful share of RxTS revenue, about 9.5%-11.5% or roughly $560-$660M, depends on GLP-1 prior authorizations that are already leveling off as employers shift coverage toward cash-pay models. The company’s guided 11%-15% operating income growth looks increasingly fragile given competitive pressure in hub services, dependence on BioPharma Solutions for 95% of segment operating income at 41% margins, and the risk that 2028 Part B drug price negotiations could cut Medicare drug spending prices by 40%-60% on about $28B. Its low-single-digit distribution margins, exposure to biosimilar pharmacy-benefit steerage, and working-capital sensitivity leave little cushion if pricing, volume, or supply-chain conditions soften.