MongoDB (MDB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MongoDB's customer base experienced significant growth, increasing by approximately 1,900 customers sequentially and 14% year-over-year, totaling over 54,500 customers compared to the previous year. The company is well-positioned within the expanding non-relational database market, which Gartner projects will grow at a robust 22% CAGR from 2023 to 2025, reaching $36 billion. Furthermore, MongoDB demonstrated strong performance in its financials, with Atlas revenue rising 24% year-over-year and operating margins in the fourth quarter surpassing consensus expectations, indicating a positive trajectory for the company's future.

MongoDB's stock outlook appears negative due to a decline in its Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) expansion rate, which decreased from 120% to 118%, reflecting challenges in acquiring high-quality workloads. Additionally, a projected non-GAAP operating margin drop to 9-10% from 15% in FY25 is largely attributed to the non-recurrence of a $50 million high-margin multiyear license revenue and increased expenditures in research and development and marketing. Furthermore, management anticipates a significant decline in revenue from Enterprise Advanced sales and Non-Atlas Subscription Revenue, compounding concerns as the company's total revenue guidance for FY26 falls short of consensus expectations.