Mondelez (MDLZ) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Mondelez International is projected to achieve 3% organic sales growth in FY27, supported by over 2% volume contributions and an ongoing positive impact from pricing strategies, particularly in developed markets. The company has demonstrated strong performance in emerging markets, with an 8% growth rate, while the cumulative pricing realized since 2021 exceeds 35%, setting the stage for a return to volume growth in the latter half of 2026. Additionally, Mondelez's solid balance sheet, characterized by a leverage ratio near 3x, combined with its leading market positions and compelling valuation, reinforces the expectation of continued stock upside.

Mondelez International's financial outlook is negatively impacted by a forecasted decline in earnings per share (EPS) for 2026, now estimated at $3.03, which reflects a reduction driven by unfavorable cocoa costs and lower-than-expected pricing realizations. Additionally, the company is facing significant gross margin contraction, projected at 60 basis points for FY26, with a steep decline of 420 basis points anticipated in the first half of the fiscal year due to inventory phasing and cocoa cost headwinds. Furthermore, Mondelez is grappling with a projected decline in organic sales growth, estimated at just over 0.5%, alongside volume and mix challenges that are expected to negatively influence their performance for the year.