MercadoLibre (MELI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MercadoLibre operates the largest e-commerce marketplace in Latin America with approximately 150 million active users and over 600 million active listings, showcasing its robust market presence. The company exhibits healthy and expanding profit margins, which allow it to invest in innovative products and services while maintaining a competitive advantage. Additionally, notable increases in e-commerce sales, particularly in Brazil with a 27% growth, highlight the favorable market conditions that support MercadoLibre's strong revenue growth outlook, projected at 35% year-over-year for 3Q25.

MercadoLibre faces several downside risks that could negatively impact its stock performance, including potential adverse regulatory changes, local currency depreciation, and increased competitive pressures in both its e-commerce and payment sectors. A fluid macroeconomic environment in Argentina, combined with higher funding costs and a potential downturn affecting gross merchandise volume (GMV) and loan losses, further contribute to the company's uncertain outlook. Additionally, despite strong sales earlier in the month, the softer-than-expected performance during Black Friday weekend suggests limitations on near-term margin expansion amidst increased investment in a more competitive landscape.